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DEAL + FORECAST INTEL THAT LEARNS
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Revenue Command

Global Sales · Q3 FY26 · 4 teams, 38 reps · updated 6 min ago
Anything carrying the Hedge AI mark is produced by our model. Everything else is your own pipeline, shown back to you.
The Number
Hedge AI Forecast
$7.1M
$0.4M under target
Quarter Target
$7.5M
95% to goal
Executive Call
$8.0M
$0.9M above what the evidence supports
Closed Won (QTD)
$4.9M
65% of target closed
Gap to Target
-$0.4M
5% of target
Path to close the gap
$0.9M recoverable  ·  $1.4M net-new path
Hit Probability
54%
At-risk quarter
Days left in quarter
34
Through Sep 30
Forecast Confidence / Trust
72 / 100
Directionally reliable
Biggest deal of the period · Q3 FY26
Halstead Industrial ON TRACK
Enterprise West · Proposal / Commercial · Dana Reyes · closes Sep 22
17% of the quarter rides on this one deal. It is the single largest point of concentration in the forecast.
$1.24M
Economic buyer engaged and a mutual close plan is signed.
Hedge Predicts Hedge AI
92% · Enterprise East misses commit by roughly $0.9M. Marco's forecast still shows it on track. Three commit-stage deals there have no economic buyer in the room.
88% · Brightwell Logistics ($410K) slips to next quarter. No decision-maker is engaged and the champion has gone quiet for 41 days. Nobody on the team has flagged it.
84% · Mid-Market cannot make the number from what it has. At 1.7x coverage the math does not close. It is being reported as a closing problem. It is a pipeline problem.
Ask the Hedge
Where is my forecast most at risk? Can we still make the number?
Path to Q3 Target Hedge AI
AT RISK

How we get from today's forecast to target

$0$2M$4M$6M$8M$7.1M+$410K+$320K+$210K+$180K+$150K$7.5MCurrent HedgeForecastBrightwellLogisticsNordhamHealthApexManufacturingSterlingRetailVantageFoodsQ3TargetPath to target$8.4M+$870K above target
Starting point Potential uplift Target
Top 5 highest-impact deals Hedge AI
1
Brightwell Logistics
Get an economic buyer in the room · J. Kerns
+$410K
Close Sep 5
2
Nordham Health
Multi-thread beyond the VP · S. Vitale
+$320K
Close Sep 8
3
Apex Manufacturing
Force a documented decision process · R. Cole
+$210K
Close Sep 12
4
Sterling Retail
Escalate through procurement · M. Dubois
+$180K
Close Sep 15
5
Vantage Foods
Hand the next step to the buyer · A. Nguyen
+$150K
Close Sep 18
Total potential uplift+$1.27M
Uplift = Hedge re-score if the blocking signal on each deal is resolved
Systemic Risk Monitor Hedge AI
3
Commit deals with no economic buyer
7
Single-threaded deals over $100K
5
Close dates moved 2+ times
9
No buyer activity in 21+ days
12
Seller-driven next steps
4
Stuck in Legal over 30 days
2
Teams under 2.0x coverage
Where the Number Is at Risk Hedge AI
Brightwell Logistics

$410K · Ent West · Proposal / Commercial. No economic buyer in five months and the champion went dark 41 days ago. A $410K coin flip nobody is watching.

Nordham Health

$320K · Ent East · Business Case. Single-threaded on one VP. If she leaves, changes her mind, or goes quiet, the entire $320K is gone.

Apex Manufacturing

$210K · Commercial · Demo / Validation. Close date has moved twice and there is still no documented decision process. Commit in name only.

Sterling Retail

$180K · Ent East · Legal / Procurement. Stuck in Legal for 38 days with zero redline movement. Procurement has never picked up the phone.

Executive Briefing Hedge AI

The call is $0.9M lighter than the room thinks, and two thirds of that sits in Enterprise East.

Three commit-stage deals have no economic buyer engaged. That is the pattern that turns a clean forecast into a missed quarter.

Mid-Market is at 1.7x coverage against a 2.5x line. Pull net-new pipeline forward or reset the number now.

Fix the top three before the QBR, not after it. 34 days left in the quarter.

Forecast Credibility Hedge AI

Rep commit against what the deal evidence actually supports, by team.

TeamCommit vs Hedge-real
Enterprise West$1.1M88%
Enterprise East$0.6M47%
Commercial$0.9M81%
Mid-Market$0.5M62%

Enterprise East converts commit to closed at 47%. Everything it puts in commit should be treated as upside until an economic buyer is named.

Rep commit
$3.1M
What the team is calling
Hedge-real commit
$2.2M
Supported by deal evidence
At risk
$0.9M
29% of the call
Coverage
2.4x
Against a 3.0x healthy line
Board Narrative Hedge AI
Target $7.5MAI forecast $7.1MGap $0.4MHit prob 54%

The quarter lands at $7.1M against a $7.5M number on current pipeline. The forecast is $0.9M lighter than the executive call, and most of that sits in Enterprise East, where three commit-stage deals have no economic buyer engaged. Mid-Market is a separate problem: at 1.7x coverage the gap cannot be closed from the pipeline that exists today. Fix the top three East deals before the QBR and the quarter is makeable. Leave them and it is not.

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